The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is the cumulative number of deaths attributed to the disease divided by the cumulative number of infected individuals (including asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections and excluding vaccinated infected individuals).[81][82][83] It is expressed in percentage points.[84] Other studies refer to this metric as the infection fatality risk.[85][86]
In November 2020, a review article in Nature reported estimates of population-weighted IFRs for various countries, excluding deaths in elderly care facilities, and found a median range of 0.24% to 1.49%.[87] IFRs rise as a function of age (from 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25, to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85). These rates vary by a factor of ≈10,000 across the age groups.[80] For comparison, the IFR for middle-aged adults is two orders of magnitude higher than the annualised risk of a fatal automobile accident and much higher than the risk of dying from seasonal influenza.[80]
In December 2020, a systematic review and meta-analysis estimated that population-weighted IFR was 0.5% to 1% in some countries (France, Netherlands, New Zealand, and Portugal), 1% to 2% in other countries (Australia, England, Lithuania, and Spain), and about 2.5% in Italy. This study reported that most of the differences reflected corresponding differences in the population's age structure and the age-specific pattern of infections.[80] There have also been reviews that have compared the fatality rate of this pandemic with prior pandemics, such as MERS-CoV.[88]
For comparison the infection mortality rate of seasonal flu in the United States is 0.1%, which is 13 times lower than COVID-19.[89]
Case fatality ratio (CFR)
Another metric in assessing death rate is the case fatality ratio (CFR),[a] which is the ratio of deaths to diagnoses. This metric can be misleading because of the delay between symptom onset and death and because testing focuses on symptomatic individuals.[90]
Based on Johns Hopkins University statistics, the global CFR is 1.02 percent (6,881,955 deaths for 676,609,955 cases) as of 10 March 2023.[8] The number varies by region and has generally declined over time.[91]